Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS62 KMLB 141756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 833 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions forecast for East Central
  Florida as afternoon highs push well into the 90s this weekend
  and early next week.

- Moderate HeatRisk impacts expected across most of the area by
  the weekend, and Major impacts possible in some spots early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Quiet this morning with 8 AM temperatures observed in the upper
60s and low 70s. Dry air and poor lapse rates above 850 mb should
limit any mentionable shower chances today. High temperatures
reach the mid 80s along the coast while climbing into the upper
80s west of I-95. The current forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Today-Friday...Pretty straightforward forecast for the rest of
the week (and next week, we`ll get to that): mostly dry and very
warm. Troughing aloft associated with the mid-level low
responsible for last week`s active weather pattern departs, as a
high pressure ridge builds over the Gulf and Florida. Weak high
pressure at the surface produces gentle southwesterly to westerly
flow, which combined with subsidence from the high pressure aloft,
will result in increasingly warm afternoons as high temperatures
in the M-U80s (Heat Index U80-L90s) today increase to the L-M90s
(Heat Index L-M90s) by Friday. This includes the coastal corridor
as offshore flow slows development of the east coast sea breeze,
only allowing it to move inland and offer a small reprieve later
in the afternoon. Coverage of Moderate HeatRisk impacts increase
through the period. It`s worth noting HeatRisk takes into account
the time of year, so while these temperatures and Heat Indices
aren`t unusual for our summer, they`re well above normal for mid
May. As far as rain chances go, while mostly dry conditions are
advertised, can`t rule out a few showers today and Thursday if a
pocket of higher moisture finds some lift.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge settles over the Gulf and
Florida through at least the first half of the week, and with weak
high pressure at the surface, mostly dry and increasingly hot
conditions continue. Gentle but persistent southwesterly to
westerly flow and increasing subsidence from the high pressure
areas further push afternoon highs into the L-M90s, well above
normal for the time of year and close to some daily high
temperature records. This includes the coastal corridor as flow
continues to slow or pin the sea breeze. Heat Index values reach
around 100 by Saturday, and continue to creep up going into next
week. As a result, widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts are
expected through the period, and Major impacts become possible in
the Orlando Metro Area Monday and Tuesday. No mentionable rain
chances at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions as high
pressure becomes anchored over Florida and the local Atlantic
waters. Winds could become squirrelly at times as the
center/ridge of high pressure moves over the area, especially in
the mornings, but for the most part winds W-SW at 5-10 kts in the
mornings shift to the ESE-SE at 10-15 kts in the afternoons and
evenings with the sea breeze, then swing back to the W-SW at 5-10
kts in the overnights. Seas 1-3 ft. Can`t rule out an isolated
shower, but otherwise dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast as high pressure builds over the
Gulf of America. MVFR VIS for fog is forecast at KLEE between 09-14Z
with TEMPO IFR VIS (30-40% chance) between 09-13Z. ESE winds at 8-10kts
to the E of KMCO & W winds at 4-9kts to the W will become light & variable
to calm tonight. Winds are forecast to increase to 6-8kts after 15Z
THU from the SW at the inland TAFs/KDAB & from the ESE to the S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  68  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Fehling