Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS62 KMLB 041849
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will persist with peak heat indices
  climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in a Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk.

- A High Risk for life threatening rip currents exists at area
  beaches from Cape Canaveral northward with a Moderate Risk
  continuing southward. Entering the surf is discouraged where
  there is a High Risk of rip currents. Otherwise, heed the
  advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating, and boundary
  collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and
  lightning storms each day into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Tonight(Independence Day)... Upper level ridge aloft across
Florida and the southern US will remain in place today as a weak
trough develops over the Midwest late today. At the surface, high
pressure across the western Atlantic will persist with the axis
extending over the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in
south to southwest winds to continue, with the east coast sea breeze
forming in the afternoon but it will not make it as far inland as it
did yesterday. The west coast sea breeze will push inland, with the
sea breeze collision forecast to occur across the eastern side of
the peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have formed
along the east coast sea breeze, mainly across the southern Treasure
coast and the Volusia coast, as well as across the west coast sea
breeze. Additional showers and storms are forecast to form along the
sea breezes, staying in the vicinity of I-95 for the east coast sea
breeze, and along the west coast sea breeze as it continues to push
inland across the state to the eastern side of the peninsula. There
is a medium and high (50-70 percent) chance of showers and storms
areawide today, mainly between 4pm-7pm, with the highest coverage
along the sea breeze collision later this afternoon/early evening.
Coverage will then gradually diminish into the evening hours. The
environment supports convection with the 15Z XMR sounding showing
plenty of instability (MUCAPE around 4300J/kg), a lifted index of -
8, and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE a little over 500 J/kg).
The main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning,
gusty winds of 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall with the potential for
minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying areas due to storms
moving slow or stationary. Be sure to practice lightning safety
during any outdoor holiday festivities. When thunder roars, go
indoors!

A hot and humid day for your holiday festivities. Afternoon high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices
between 102-107F. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk exists today with a
Major HeatRisk extending across the Orlando metro and through
portions of the I-95 corridor. A High Risk of rip currents exists at
Volusia and northern Brevard beaches, north of Cape Canaveral.
Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. A Moderate Risk continues
southward including southern Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches.
Never swim alone and always heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrol flags, and signs!

Sunday-Tuesday... An upper level trough across the Midwest on
Sunday will steadily move eastward towards the eastern Coast
through Tuesday, moving offshore Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. At the surface, a broad, weak low pressure will
develop near the base of the trough on Sunday before moving
towards the eastern US through Tuesday, with an associated weak
front sagging into the southeast US through early next week. A
surface ridge across the western Atlantic will remain in place
with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the
Gulf. This will help keep the trough and surface boundary north of
the area. Locally, south to southwest winds will persist through
the period, which will keep the deep moisture in place, with
forecast soundings supporting that with PW values 2+". The deeper
moisture will allow the higher rain chances to continue each
afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong. The environment
supports this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1400-2000J/kg),
and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 400- 700 J/kg). And
despite the relatively warmer temperatures aloft (-7 to -6C at 500
mb), occasional shortwave energy could also aid in storms
becoming stronger. Main storm hazards will be frequent to
excessive lightning, gusty winds of 40-55mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Due to the lighter flow through the column, storms will
be slow moving or even stationary, which increases the potential
for localized flooding.

Hot and humid conditions continue through the period, with a gradual
warming trend forecast (increasing a degree or two each day).
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day. These
temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat
indices of 102-107F Sunday and Monday, and may be near Heat Advisory
criteria across portions of the area Tuesday. A Moderate to Major
HeatRisk will affect those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Friday... An upper level trough over the NE US will move
eastward and push offshore on Wednesday, with a weaker shortwave
pushing into the eastern US and then offshore by late week. At the
surface, an area of low pressure just off the NE coast will push
north and eastward on Wednesday,remaining offshore. At the same
time, a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will stay in
place, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula and
extending into the Gulf. Locally, this will result in the south to
southwest flow persisting. Scattered showers and lightning storms
are forecast each day, with models indicating a swath of drier air
infiltrating in the mid levels, which may reduce overall rain
chances mid to late week. Slightly above normal temperatures
continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast
and mid 90s across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Wednesay... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period. South to southwest flow will persist through at least early
next week, shifting onshore (east to southeast) each afternoon with
the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Wind remaining 10 KT or
less during the daytime hours before increasing to 10-15 KT each
evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft, but occasionally build to
3ft far offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
forecast each morning with scattered to numerous offshore moving
storms forecast each afternoon and evening through at least early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR outside of convection at ECFL terminals. TS/SH beginning to
develop on the sea breezes, prompting a few early TEMPOs. Weak
offshore (WRLY) flow slowing inland progression of the east coast
sea breeze. Coverage of TS expected to increase through the rest
of the afternoon, becoming numerous after 20Z, with the highest
coverage along the sea breeze collision near to just east of
KMCO/Orlando area terminals, and west of the coastal terminals.
Overall weak offshore flow will gradually push TS activity back
towards the east coast, but individual storm motion will be slow
and erratic. Convection from the sea breeze collision could linger
through 02Z before diminishing/moving offshore. Winds at coastal
terminals are switching onshore (SE-SSE) behind the sea breeze,
while inland terminals remain offshore, increasing to around 10
kts, then winds become light/VRB again tonight. Sunday, slightly
stronger offshore flow expected to pin the east coast sea breeze
near the coast to offshore, focusing highest TS/SH chances along
the coast, but ISO-SCT TS will be possible inland as the west
coast sea breeze pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  76  92 /  20  60  30  70
MCO  77  92  76  93 /  30  60  40  70
MLB  77  90  77  91 /  30  70  30  70
VRB  75  91  76  91 /  30  70  20  70
LEE  77  92  77  93 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  77  93  77  94 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  77  92  77  93 /  30  70  30  70
FPR  75  90  75  91 /  30  70  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley